Syrian President Pursues Sophisticated Re-armament Amid Western Scrutiny

Israeli security officials are concerned about the strategic direction of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who they describe as a "super sophisticated" leader deeply rooted in his past as a "radical jihad leader." Despite this ideological background, Assad is adept at navigating international relations, tailoring his approach to engage with the United States, moderate Sunni Arab nations, Europe, and others to advance his regime's interests. His primary objective is to gain international legitimacy, shed his past image, and attract foreign investment, similar to the early days of his predecessor, Hafez al-Assad. Stability within Syria is therefore crucial for his agenda.

However, a significant source of concern for Israel's security establishment is Assad's relentless pursuit of re-armament. He aims to rebuild military bases and acquire weapons systems, particularly those that could restrict the Israeli Air Force's operational freedom. Furthermore, he continues to permit hostile elements targeting Israel to establish a presence in Syria under the guise of "cooperation" and "advisory" roles. Beyond air defense, a particularly worrying development is his effort to restore Syria's ground forces, with plans to establish divisions after reconstituting battalions and brigades. While the current combat readiness of these forces is reportedly low, Assad has already overseen brigade-level exercises, prompting Israeli vigilance.

Assad's foreign policy also involves complex relationships, notably with Turkey. While outwardly appearing cooperative, significant underlying tensions exist between Assad's administration and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government. Although Turkey has provided support, Erdoğan seeks concessions in return, which could also bolster his standing with the U.S. president. Not all within Assad's circle are aligned with Turkey's assertive approach, especially given past incidents.

Additionally, the Assad regime harbors significant animosity towards Iran and Hezbollah, though this has not yet translated into direct military action beyond restricting Shiite influence in Syria and strengthening border enforcement with Lebanon. This stance is viewed with apprehension by the Lebanese military and Hezbollah, particularly concerning the possibility of Assad intervening in Lebanon should civil war erupt there. His desire for territorial gains and retribution against Hezbollah for its role in the Syrian civil war is a key concern.

Israel is also monitoring increased terrorist activity in southern Syria, which some attribute to ongoing civil conflict and efforts by various factions to reshape the region. While the Syrian regime opposes these developments, its ability to curb them is limited, leading to a high state of alert for the Israel Defense Forces. Ultimately, Israeli security officials recognize that Syria under Assad is in a state of flux. Assad seeks to consolidate his rule, achieve international acceptance, and reopen his country to investment, while simultaneously rebuilding his military and pursuing re-armament. Israel remains focused on understanding the intentions of this former "jihadist" and his future trajectory.