Syria's New Leadership Presents Strategic Challenge for Israel Amid Regional Uncertainty
This week in Israel, a media controversy emerged around an unclear report suggesting that one regional country advised another to sign a deal with Israel only to later break it. While the advising country remains disputed, candidates include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, the advised country is widely believed to be Syria. Syria, now under the leadership of jihadist-rooted Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) since December 2024, has become a complex strategic dilemma for Israel. Al-Shara ended over 50 years of Alawite rule by taking Damascus and has since adopted a moderate public persona, distancing himself from typical jihadist governance models seen in Iran or Gaza. He has gained some acceptance in the Arab world as a counterbalance to Iranian influence and a stabilizing force after decades of turmoil.
Al-Shara recently agreed with Russia to maintain a limited military presence in Syria and allowed international oversight of Syria’s nuclear program remnants. He also rejected U.S. pressure to invade Lebanon or confront Hezbollah, even expressing openness to dialogue with the group. Domestically, al-Shara faces significant challenges, including tensions with minority groups and extremist factions within his own camp, highlighted by deadly attacks on Druze, Alawites, and Kurds last year. Meanwhile, remnants of the Assad regime continue to be purged, with death sentences issued against Bashar al-Assad and his brother.
Israel’s dilemma centers on the security zone near the Golan Heights, captured after Assad’s fall, where tensions remain low but external pressure, especially from the U.S., mounts for Israel to withdraw and negotiate a security arrangement with Damascus. Al-Shara has publicly supported such an agreement as a step toward comprehensive peace but insists it cannot come at the expense of Syria’s claim to the Golan Heights, a deeply personal issue for him given his family’s displacement in 1967.
Experts are divided on al-Shara’s nature and intentions. Some see him as a pragmatic leader focused on stabilizing his fragile rule and open to security arrangements with Israel, while others warn he is a dangerous jihadist disguised by a moderate facade. The recent reports about rebuilding Syria’s air force with Turkish help and the timing of the leaked information suggest political motives behind the narrative, possibly aimed at justifying continued Israeli control over captured territories and hindering normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia.
The discourse reflects broader tensions in Israeli society and politics, especially post-October 7 attacks, where mistrust toward Arabs and skepticism about peace efforts have intensified. Analysts urge caution and nuanced understanding rather than binary views of war or peace. Israel’s current strategy of maintaining military presence without diplomatic engagement leaves the conflict unresolved, with U.S. influence and former U.S. President Trump’s policies playing significant roles in shaping outcomes in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
