Syria Builds Up Military, Raising Israeli Security Concerns

Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar'a is reportedly diverting significant state resources towards building a large regular army and acquiring advanced weaponry, according to Israeli security sources cited by Walla. Instead of investing in infrastructure or public welfare following years of war, Syria is prioritizing military buildup, with efforts made to conceal its scale. This strategy is seen by Israeli intelligence as primarily targeting Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias in Iraq, with a potential future focus on Israel.

Israeli defense officials estimate that al-Shar'a's operational plans are timed for a moment when Syria can strike Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-linked militias in Iraq. This timing may coincide with the completion of Syria's military development and a potential reduction in U.S. military presence in the region, particularly Iraq, which could hinder U.S. intervention.

Meanwhile, European nations, notably Germany, are supporting the Syrian regime to stem the flow of refugees and facilitate their return. Stabilization and the cessation of conflict in Syria would provide a justification for European countries to repatriate refugees. Concurrently, moderate Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging with al-Shar'a, offering financial and political support to moderate his agenda and distance him from radical elements, despite his past affiliations.

Relations between Syria and Turkey remain complex. Sources suggest al-Shar'a is hesitant to cede territory to Turkey or grant control over military bases, and an Israeli attack in Syria may have inadvertently aided his position. Al-Shar'a aims to establish Syria as a regional power, with the potential to direct military force against Israel once his objectives are set.

Israel reportedly missed an opportunity to secure agreements with a weaker al-Shar'a regarding border territories and the Golan Heights. Consequently, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are intensifying intelligence gathering on the Syrian military and developing operational plans for potential large-scale interventions to counter Syrian threats and preserve Israel's military advantage. Security sources view a future confrontation as a matter of time.