Pollster Shlomo Filber Predicts Election Outcome for Right-Wing Bloc

As the final candidate lists are set, Israeli political analyst Shlomo Filber offers a distinct perspective on the upcoming elections, diverging from common analyses that suggest a more organized left and a fragmented right. Filber observes that despite numerous smaller parties on the right, voter awareness of the importance of bloc size is high. He predicts internal pressure and solidarity will compel these smaller parties to either withdraw or cede support to larger parties within the bloc.

Filber highlights two key developments shaping the right-wing bloc. The unexpected union of the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties is attracting "lost votes" from the ideological right. Simultaneously, the Likud party has presented a more centralized, experienced, and refreshed list. While Likud may be losing a few mandates to the right wing, its broader appeal is expected to secure approximately four centrist mandates, potentially bringing the right-wing bloc to 63-64 seats and attracting new voters.

On the opposition's side, parties have organized to prevent vote loss but struggle with a unified victory strategy. Disagreements exist between those favoring a minority government supported by Arab parties and efforts by Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett to reshape the political system if the right-wing bloc fails to reach 61 mandates.

Filber also addresses the "third bloc" of approximately 6-7 mandates seeking new leadership, unity, a solution to the conscription law, and security. Data indicates a strong preference for Benjamin Netanyahu (58%) over Gadi Eisenkot (25%) within this group. Filber estimates that in the absence of other alternatives, these voters will return to their parent blocs at the last minute, potentially adding two net mandates to the right-wing bloc.

Concluding his analysis, Filber acknowledges the discrepancies in various polls, emphasizing that the ultimate decision rests with the voters. He anticipates a sharp and painful outcome for one of the political sides.