Israeli "Change Bloc" Parties Vie for Dominance Ahead of Elections

Tensions are escalating within Israel's "change bloc" of parties as they compete for dominance ahead of the next elections. A recent text message from Gadi Eisenkot's campaign, emphasizing the race to be the "largest party in Israel" against Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud, has highlighted this internal struggle. The message notably omits references to right-wing figures or the October 7th attacks, focusing instead on internal bloc dynamics.

Eisenkot has previously advocated for the leader of the largest party in the bloc to become prime minister, warning that alternative government formations could jeopardize the ousting of Netanyahu. While publicly united against the right, the parties are privately engaged in a fierce contest for votes and post-election influence. Yesh Atid, for instance, aims to reclaim voters who have shifted to Eisenkot, estimating that around 40% of its former supporters are now with him.

The outcome of this internal competition could significantly impact coalition negotiations if the change bloc wins. A substantial lead for Eisenkot would bolster his claim to lead the government, whereas a close race would leave room for power-sharing arrangements like rotation or other demands from coalition partners. This principle is already a point of contention, with Avigdor Lieberman calling the automatic support for the largest party's leader a "grave mistake."

A recent meeting between Naftali Bennett and Lieberman was interpreted by some as an attempt to consolidate forces against Eisenkot, increasing suspicion among bloc members. Simultaneously, the bloc faces concerns over declining poll numbers. Some warn that an overly aggressive internal campaign could become a zero-sum game, with parties merely shifting votes among themselves without growing the bloc's overall support.

Leaders have publicly addressed these concerns. Bennett urged supporters not to despair over polls, stating that victory is achievable with the right strategy, and emphasized the need to prevent another term for the "terrible government of October 7th." MK Merav Ben Ari encouraged optimism, calling for a united effort to defeat the current government, establish a state inquiry commission, enact a universal draft law, limit prime ministerial terms, and restore the public sector.