Israeli Election Dynamics: "Change Bloc" Secures Deals, Right-Wing Parties Risk Lost Votes

As the Israeli election approaches, parties in the "change bloc" have finalized surplus vote agreements, a crucial step to maximize their Knesset seats. These agreements, which allow parties that pass the electoral threshold to be treated as a single unit for distributing leftover votes, significantly increase their chances of gaining an extra mandate. Notably, Yashar! partnered with Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu with Achva, and Ra'am with the Joint List, forming three pairs within the bloc. These alliances are seen as a strategic move to efficiently utilize surplus votes, assuming each party clears the minimum threshold, which polls suggest is likely.

In contrast, the right-wing bloc, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is experiencing delays in finalizing similar agreements, potentially signaling internal friction. While Shas and United Torah Judaism are expected to sign a deal soon, as is customary, the Likud party's negotiations are more complex. The Likud is reportedly in talks with the Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit party, though a formal agreement is pending. Netanyahu is reportedly hesitant to align with Ofir Winter's "Am Israel" party due to an ongoing public campaign against it, leaving Religious Zionism as the Likud's most viable option for a surplus deal.

Several parties, including Otzma Yehudit, Am Israel, HaMiluimnikim, Blue and White, Noam, Yisrael T'chila, and the Haredi public, have yet to secure surplus agreements. The delay from the Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit in reaching a deal with Am Israel appears linked to a planned aggressive campaign against Winter's party, accusing him of potentially joining a "change bloc 2.0" or facilitating a Palestinian state. If this campaign is overly successful and Am Israel fails to pass the electoral threshold, it could cost the right-wing bloc approximately 150,000 votes, as votes for parties below the threshold are nullified and cannot benefit from surplus agreements.

The fragmentation within the right-wing bloc, with multiple parties vying for similar voters, poses a significant risk. Even small vote losses for individual parties could accumulate into a critical mass of wasted votes in what is expected to be a close election, potentially determining the difference between forming a coalition and remaining in opposition. Furthermore, some politicians within the Likud, like Yaakov Bardugo, and the Religious Zionism party, like Moshe Feiglin, have been notably sidelined in campaign messaging, suggesting a strategic decision to mute voices that might alienate undecided voters.