Jewish Holidays Spark Tensions at Al-Aqsa Mosque Amid Increased Incursions

Palestinian officials and observers are warning of heightened tensions at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during the upcoming Jewish holiday season, citing a significant increase in settler incursions and calls for intensified Palestinian presence. In August alone, Palestinian religious affairs authorities documented 26 incursions, while other monitoring groups reported 21 incursions involving over 5,000 settlers, indicating a continuous escalation.

The Jewish holidays, beginning with Rosh Hashanah on September 12-13 and extending through Sukkot until October 2, are seen as a critical period. These holidays hold deep religious significance for Jewish groups advocating for increased Jewish presence at the Temple Mount, the site of the First and Second Temples according to Jewish tradition. Some extremist groups even call for the construction of a Third Temple.

While not all Jewish religious streams share this agenda, nationalist and religious groups are leveraging the holidays to mobilize larger numbers of visitors and perform public rituals. Palestinian and Jordanian authorities view these actions as attempts to alter the status quo at the mosque, which since 1967 has permitted non-Muslim visits but restricted prayer to Muslims.

Recent years have seen a shift from debates over mere entry to discussions about activities within the compound. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's visits in July and August, where he reportedly spoke of advancing Jewish prayer at the Temple Mount, have drawn condemnation and fueled fears that limited or clandestine practices could become more public and regular.

In response, Palestinian and Jerusalemite calls for "شد الرحال" (shadd al-rihal), meaning intensified presence and prayer, aim to counter the potential emptying of the mosque of Muslim worshippers during periods of expected large incursions. The Jerusalem Governorate urged Palestinians to increase their presence and prayer at Al-Aqsa during the holiday season to prevent the imposition of new rituals or changes to the historical and legal arrangements.

This year's warnings are amplified by a more volatile environment, following a series of incidents that have moved the discourse from visitation to prayer and rituals. Analysts suggest that pressure from the far-right is not just symbolic but part of a broader struggle over the site's management, entry, and prayer rules, challenging the existing framework. Each holiday becomes an opportunity to test boundaries regarding the number of visitors, public rituals, prayer, and movement within the compound, leading to Palestinian concerns about "imposing a fait accompli."

Official figures show over 40,000 settlers have entered Al-Aqsa this year up to the end of August, with around 800 individuals banned from the site since January. These numbers suggest increased regularity of activity, with the holiday season building upon an existing trend. Incursions by hundreds of settlers, protected by police, have already occurred during Rosh Hashanah, validating prior warnings.

Internal Israeli politics, with elections approaching in October, also play a role, as the Israeli right seeks to consolidate influence. The Al-Aqsa Mosque is seen as a potential tool in electoral competition, with the right aiming to project Israeli sovereignty and visible Jewish presence. For Palestinians, maintaining a strong presence is a defense of the status quo against the normalization of exceptional measures.

The current holiday season is far from over, with Yom Kippur and Sukkot still to come. Calls for intensified presence and warnings of incursions are expected to continue. The core issue is not just the number of settlers but whether practices previously considered violations become normalized, fundamentally altering the rules of presence, prayer, and ritual at the site. This dynamic makes each Jewish holiday a critical test of the remaining aspects of the status quo.