New Polls Show Emerging Party Leading Likud Ahead of Israeli Elections

Recent opinion polls released by leading Israeli television channels indicate significant shifts in voter preferences, highlighting a persistent crisis of trust in traditional political parties and the absence of a clear majority for any major bloc. The "Yashar" party has emerged as the frontrunner in two separate surveys, projecting it to win 24 seats in the Knesset, ahead of the ruling Likud party, which is predicted to secure 20 seats.

One poll, conducted by the "Kantar" institute for Kan-11, shows "Yashar" leading with 24 mandates, followed by Likud with 20. Other parties and their projected seat counts include "B'yahad" with 12, "Democratim," "Otzma Yehudit," and "Yisrael Beiteinu" with 8 each, "Yahadut HaTorah," Shas, and the joint Arab list with 7 each, "Tzionut Datit" with 6, Ra'am with 5, and "Amcha Yisrael" and the alliance of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zaliha with 4 each. This poll surveyed 551 respondents with a 4.2% margin of error.

A parallel survey by "Midgam" for Keshet-12 largely corroborates these trends, placing "Yashar" at 23 seats and Likud at 20. In this poll, "B'yahad" is projected to get 13 seats, "Democratim" 10, the joint Arab list, "Yahadut HaTorah," and "Yisrael Beiteinu" 8 each, Shas 7, "Otzma Yehudit" 6, "Tzionut Datit" 5, and Ra'am, "Amcha Yisrael," and the Hendel-Zaliha alliance with 4 each. This survey involved 500 participants with a 4.4% margin of error.

Both polls suggest that the current government coalition and the opposition bloc, excluding Arab factions and independent players, would each secure 52 seats, raising doubts about the formation of a stable government. The "Midgam" poll specifically calculated the current coalition at 50 seats and the opposition at 66 (or 54 without Arab parties). These findings underscore the likelihood of complex coalition negotiations following the upcoming elections.