Polls Show New Party Leading Likud, No Clear Knesset Majority

Two Israeli television channels, Kan-11 and Keshet-12, released the results of separate opinion polls on Monday, September 14, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape. The "Kantar" poll, commissioned by Kan-11, projected the "Yashar" party securing 24 seats in the Knesset, with the ruling "Likud" party following with 20 seats. Other parties projected to gain seats included "Behad" (12), "Democratim" (8), "Otzma Yehudit" (8), "Yisrael Beiteinu" (8), "Yahadut HaTorah" (7), "Shas" (7), the Joint List of Arab parties (7), "Tzionut Datit" (6), "Ra'am" (5), "Amcha Israel" (4), and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zaliha (4). This poll indicated a coalition bloc of 52 seats and an opposition bloc of 52 seats, excluding Arab parties and the Hendel-Zaliha list. The Kantar poll surveyed 551 respondents with a margin of error of 4.2%.

The "Midgam" poll, conducted for Keshet-12, showed "Yashar" with 23 seats and "Likud" with 20. In this survey, "Behad" was projected to receive 13 seats, "Democratim" 10, the Joint List 8, "Yahadut HaTorah" 8, "Yisrael Beiteinu" 8, "Shas" 7, "Otzma Yehudit" 6, "Tzionut Datit" 5, "Ra'am" 4, "Amcha Israel" 4, and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zaliha 4. The Midgam poll suggested a coalition bloc of 50 seats and an opposition bloc of 66 seats (excluding Hendel and Zaliha). Without the Arab parties, the coalition bloc would have 54 seats. This poll surveyed 500 respondents with a margin of error of 4.4%.