Arab World's History Shows Alliances Crumble Under Pressure

Professor Boaz Golani argues that historical precedents in the Arab world demonstrate a consistent pattern of alliances and agreements collapsing when faced with genuine crises. He cites numerous examples, beginning with the Arab League's mutual defense pact after Israel's War of Independence, which proved ineffective when Britain, France, and Israel attacked Egypt. Similarly, pre-Six-Day War defense agreements between Egypt, Syria, and Jordan lacked coordination, leading to individual defeats.

The Arab Cooperation Council, formed in 1989 by Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, dissolved within a year when Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing Egypt to join the coalition against it. In Lebanon, the National Pact of 1943, intended to balance power between Maronite Christians and Sunni Muslims, disintegrated with the outbreak of civil war in 1975, exacerbated by the PLO's presence and demographic shifts.

Further examples include the Shiite Amal movement and Sunni Palestinian organizations, initially allied against Christian forces in Lebanon, who later engaged in brutal conflict during the "War of the Camps." The 2006 sectarian massacres in Iraq marked the end of an earlier alliance between Shiites and Sunnis formed during the 1920 revolt against the British.

Even contemporary alliances, like the Syrian Democratic Forces comprising Kurds and Arab tribes fighting ISIS, have fractured, with Arab tribes rebelling against Kurdish control after ISIS's decline. Golani suggests that these historical failures in Arab states and among their various communities should lead to caution regarding any new agreements, particularly those involving Israel and its neighbors, advising a healthy skepticism towards such pacts.