Middle East Sees Shift to Flexible Alliances, Challenging Abraham Accords Logic

Since the October 7, 2025 events, the Middle East has witnessed a significant realignment of regional alliances, moving away from the traditional binary division between the "Resistance Axis" (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis, Hamas) and the "Moderate Sunni Camp" (Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and covertly Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan). A new flexible and shifting network of partnerships has emerged, exemplified by the August 8, 2026 "Mecca Agreement" between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, which includes a mutual defense clause treating aggression against one as aggression against all three.

This alliance is part of broader regional cooperation efforts initiated after a series of Iranian attacks on Gulf states, including the formation of the "Octet", eight Islamic countries collaborating politically on Gaza ceasefire and humanitarian aid, and the "Quartet" (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan) coordinating diplomatic efforts. However, Egypt has not joined the Mecca Agreement due to concerns about its peace treaty with Israel and its strategic ties with Greece and Cyprus, instead participating in separate coalitions focused on Red Sea security.

Pakistan maintains a complex position, balancing its ties with Iran, with which it recently expanded trade and border cooperation, and its role in the new tripartite alliance. Turkey has leveraged recent events to strengthen its regional influence, overcoming past tensions with Saudi Arabia and Egypt and expanding its presence in Syria, Qatar, and Gaza. Qatar remains outside these new coalitions, relying on U.S. security guarantees.

These developments signal a departure from the Abraham Accords’ premise that shared threats would unify regional states with Israel. Instead, Israel finds itself increasingly isolated from emerging regional architectures, particularly in the Red Sea area where it has vital security and economic interests but is excluded from new alliances. The article concludes that Israel must reassess its political strategy post-October 7, recognizing the fluid and rapidly changing nature of Middle Eastern coalitions.

Prof. Eli Foda, an expert on Islam and the Middle East at the Hebrew University, authored this analysis, highlighting the need for Israeli governments to adapt to the new regional dynamics.