Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israeli Elections, Benny Gantz Leads Netanyahu

Two new Israeli opinion polls released Monday evening indicate that no bloc will secure a governing majority in an upcoming election, with Benny Gantz's National Unity party leading in one poll and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party trailing. The polls, conducted by Channel 11 and Channel 12, both suggest a close race between Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition, with neither reaching the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government.

According to the Channel 11 poll, Gantz's party would secure 52 seats, matching Netanyahu's bloc, while the Arab parties would collectively win 12 seats. The Likud party itself is projected to win 20 seats, losing one from a previous poll. Other parties like Yair Golan's Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu are projected to gain seats, while Haredi parties like United Torah Judaism and Shas hold steady.

The Channel 12 poll shows Gantz's party leading with 23 seats, though down two from its previous projection. Netanyahu's Likud is projected at 20 seats, and Naftali Bennett's party at 13. This poll also places the opposition bloc at 54 seats against Netanyahu's 50, with the Arab parties taking 12 seats. Notably, the "Economy and Reserve" list, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, crosses the electoral threshold for the first time in this poll.

In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Gantz leads Netanyahu in both polls. The Channel 11 poll shows 39% favoring Gantz versus 36% for Netanyahu. The Channel 12 poll shows Gantz with 42% support compared to Netanyahu's 36%, widening the gap. However, Netanyahu fares better against Bennett in the Channel 11 poll, and Bennett narrowly leads Netanyahu in the Channel 12 poll.

Regarding the impact of the October 7th attacks, the Channel 11 poll indicates that 49% of respondents believe Netanyahu's performance and handling of prior warnings will influence their vote, a sentiment stronger among opposition voters. Among those who voted Likud in 2022, 41% said it would affect their vote, while only 27% of those intending to vote Likud in the next election agreed.

If no bloc achieves a majority, 36% of respondents in the Channel 11 poll favor new elections, while 27% prefer a unity government. A significant portion, 21%, would support a government relying on Arab party backing. Among opposition voters, there is a strong desire for a single, declared candidate for prime minister, with 71% supporting this idea, though opinions differ on when that candidate should be announced.