Israeli Polls Show Tight Race Between Netanyahu and Gantz Camps
Recent Israeli opinion polls released Wednesday evening, following the finalization of candidate lists for the 26th Knesset elections, indicate a close contest between the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposing bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot. Arab parties are projected to collectively win between 12 and 14 seats.
The polls highlight the critical impact of the electoral threshold, with some surveys showing the parties led by Ofir Ventur and Yoaz Hendel-Yaron Zelekha entering the Knesset, while others show them failing to pass the threshold, significantly altering bloc distributions just one day after candidate lists were finalized.
A poll by Kan 11 showed Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leading with 24 seats, ahead of Likud's 21. The "B'Yachad" party led by Naftali Bennett garnered 12 seats, and "HaDemocratim" secured 9. "Yahadut HaTorah" received 8 seats, while Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List each got 7. The United Arab List and "Zionut Datit-Zehut" each received 5 seats. Ofir Ventur's "Amcha Yisrael" and the "Milium V'Hechsher" alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha each obtained 4 seats. Kan 11's bloc calculation resulted in a 52-52 tie between Netanyahu's and Eisenkot's camps, with the two Arab lists taking 12 seats and Hendel-Zelekha's alliance accounting for 4 seats outside these blocs.
Channel 13's poll showed "Yashar" ahead with 22 seats to Likud's 19. "B'Yachad" secured 13 seats, "HaDemocratim" 10, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" rose to 9 seats. "Yahadut HaTorah," "Yisrael Beiteinu," and the Joint List each received 8 seats, Shas 7, and the United Arab List and "Zionut Datit-Zehut" 6 each. "Amcha Yisrael" received 4 seats. This poll also showed a 53-53 tie between the two main blocs, with the Arab lists taking 14 seats. The Hendel-Zelekha alliance narrowly missed the 3.25% threshold with 3.2%, failing to enter the Knesset, as did "Kachol Lavan" and "HaGush HaHaredi."
An i24NEWS poll placed Likud first with 27 seats, followed by "Yashar" with 22. "B'Yachad" received 10 seats, "HaDemocratim" 9, "Yahadut HaTorah" and "Otzma Yehudit" 8 each, and Shas, "Yisrael Beiteinu," and the Joint List 7 each. "Zionut Datit-Zehut" received 6 seats, the United Arab List 5, and "Amcha Yisrael" 4.
Channel 14's poll presented a starkly different outcome, giving Likud 31 seats to "Yashar's" 22, and Shas 10 seats. "HaDemocratim," "Zionut Datit-Zehut," and "Otzma Yehudit" each received 8 seats, while "B'Yachad," "Yahadut HaTorah," and "Yisrael Beiteinu" each got 7. The Arab lists were projected to win a total of 12 seats, 6 each. "Amcha Yisrael" was kept out of the Knesset with 2.1%, and the Hendel-Zelekha alliance received 1.4%. According to Channel 14, Netanyahu's bloc secured 64 seats against the "left bloc's" 44, plus the 12 Arab seats.