Hezbollah Faces Strategic Defeat, Analyst Argues

Hezbollah has suffered a strategic defeat in its conflict with Israel but refuses to acknowledge it, according to Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and author on Lebanon. Ibish argues in an article published by Maariv that the group has not taken responsibility for the price Lebanon has paid.

He posits a hypothetical scenario where Hezbollah-favored candidates, like Suleiman Frangieh for president and Najib Mikati for prime minister, hold key positions in Lebanon by the end of 2024. Even such a government, Ibish contends, would be powerless to stop Israel. While it might adopt the "people, army, and resistance" formula and insist on discussing Hezbollah's arsenal within a "national defense strategy," this would not alter the reality on the ground.

Ibish asserts that a government aligned with Hezbollah would find itself in a similar predicament to the current Lebanese leadership under President Michel Aoun and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Israel would continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and expanding its military presence in southern Lebanon, with the Beirut government unable to effectively counter these actions.

This assessment extends beyond Lebanon, with Ibish claiming the current Middle East power balance favors the United States and Israel. "The US and Israel are simply too strong militarily, economically, diplomatically, and technologically for Iran and Hezbollah," he stated. He further noted that Tehran's inability to prevent U.S. strikes within Iran severely limits its capacity to hinder Israeli actions against Hezbollah.

Previously, Cursor reported that Israel intends to leverage its experience combating underground infrastructure in Gaza as a tool to pressure Iran. Strikes against Hezbollah tunnels and facilities in Lebanon aim to signal to Tehran that its allies can no longer rely on the security of their infrastructure.