Lebanese Analyst Admits Hezbollah's Strategic Defeat Against Israel

Lebanese commentator Hussein Abdallah asserts that Hezbollah has suffered a strategic defeat against Israel, a reality the organization refuses to acknowledge. Instead, Hezbollah is directing anger towards the Lebanese state, blaming it for failing to protect southern Lebanon, an area Hezbollah itself has weakened over the years. Abdallah argues that even a government aligned with Hezbollah would not alter the balance of power with Israel.

He further contends that the regional balance of power now favors the United States and Israel, stating they are militarily, economically, diplomatically, and technologically superior to Iran and Hezbollah. Abdallah believes Iran cannot prevent U.S. attacks within its own territory, severely limiting its ability to thwart Israeli actions against Hezbollah.

Abdallah claims Hezbollah's propaganda machine is targeting Lebanese President Aoun, Prime Minister Salam, and anyone advocating for a settlement with Israel. He posits that the strategic situation would not change even if Hezbollah's political opponents disappeared, concluding that Hezbollah must disarm or southern Lebanon will remain devastated and depopulated.

The analyst also notes a permanent shift in the regional landscape, citing the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah's significant weakening, the destruction or capture of much of its arsenal, and the dire economic situations in Tehran and Beirut. He suggests that continued U.S. economic pressure makes a rapid regional resurgence for Iran highly unlikely.