Experts Debate Hezbollah’s Shift From Asset to Burden for Iran Amid Regional Tensions
Amid ongoing security developments in the Middle East, international media analyses are shedding light on evolving dynamics between Iran and its proxy groups, particularly Hezbollah. Daniel Byman, a Georgetown University professor and director of the CSIS Warfare Program, argues in Foreign Policy that Iran’s new leadership is increasingly less dependent on proxies like Hezbollah for deterrence. Instead, Tehran now leverages threats to global energy markets and vulnerable U.S. partnerships to exert pressure more effectively than through proxy rocket attacks or militia operations. While proxies remain useful, they no longer occupy the central role in Iran’s strategic deterrence, with Iran itself stepping in to support groups like Hezbollah rather than relying on them.
Byman highlights that Iran’s proxies have not proven effective deterrents against the U.S. and Israel; rather, their attacks have prompted Israeli strikes directly on Iran. Following the October 7 attacks, Israeli leaders openly blamed Iran, shifting the strategic equation and reducing restraint toward Tehran. Byman concludes that Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have become as much a liability as an asset, requiring Iranian support without providing proportional security benefits. This marks a paradox where Iran’s resistance axis remains but is less capable of fulfilling its original defensive purpose.
Separately, Dalga Khatinoglu, an energy analyst at Iran International, notes that despite falling global oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels, the Hormuz Strait crisis is far from over. The price drop reflects emergency measures like strategic reserve releases and alternative export routes, combined with weakened global demand, rather than a true supply recovery. The Gulf region has lost about 1.3 billion barrels of production, with full restoration expected to take months or years. Disruptions extend beyond crude oil to petrochemicals, metals, fertilizers, and helium, impacting global industry, agriculture, and supply chains. Khatinoglu warns that until shipping normalizes and Gulf production recovers, the global economy remains vulnerable to energy shocks and market volatility.
Meanwhile, life is slowly returning to Beirut’s southern suburbs, Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, following recent fighting. The New York Times describes a gradual return to normalcy amid ruins, with traffic jams, open bakeries, and cafes filled with football fans. However, many migrant workers displaced by the conflict remain homeless or in overcrowded shelters. Hezbollah’s presence is visibly prominent through flags, murals, and memorials. Concurrently, Al Jazeera reports protests in Beirut, especially Dahieh, against a new framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Protesters, many waving Hezbollah flags, express deep opposition to any deal with Israel, citing the destruction and suffering their communities endured during recent hostilities.
These perspectives illustrate the complex and shifting nature of Iran’s regional influence, the ongoing economic repercussions of the Gulf conflict, and the local social-political realities in Lebanon’s Hezbollah-dominated areas.
