Saudi Crown Prince Faces Mounting Crises Amidst Military, Economic Woes
Recent setbacks for pro-Saudi forces in Yemen highlight a growing loss of control by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is seen as having brought the situation upon himself. Despite significant defense spending over the past seven years, the Saudi military has failed to defeat the Houthi rebels, build effective proxy forces, or adequately defend against threats. This military ineffectiveness comes despite a 2019 Houthi attack on critical Saudi oil facilities that paralyzed half the kingdom's production capacity.
Economically, Saudi Arabia has not secured its primary revenue stream, oil exports, by failing to develop alternative pipelines to bypass regional chokepoints like the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz. This vulnerability allows Iran and its proxies to threaten oil deliveries to Asia, the kingdom's main market. The reliance on oil revenue persists, despite ambitious development projects, leaving the country facing a significant budget deficit, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts.
Internationally, the United States views Saudi Arabia's diminished influence with concern. Washington's efforts to maintain stability in the region, including preventing Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, may require direct American intervention. The US's willingness to rely on Saudi Arabia's financial power has waned, given both the kingdom's economic challenges and evolving US strategic priorities.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's strategic alliances are questioned, with a perceived over-reliance on Turkey and Pakistan, which have remained largely uninvolved in regional conflicts, over potentially more beneficial partners like India, the UAE, and Israel. These latter nations are already actively countering Iran and its proxies and could offer significant economic and technological advantages. The author suggests that the Crown Prince's current predicament may eventually compel him to pursue closer ties with Israel and the UAE, emphasizing the need to consider what each party brings to and expects from such a normalization process.
