Saudi Arabia Faces Growing Pressure Amid Trump’s Iran Strategy and Regional Tensions

President Donald Trump’s strategy to wear down Iran through prolonged economic sanctions and military pressure hinges on the assumption that Tehran’s resources and internal stability will eventually force it to compromise. However, this approach overlooks the complex regional dynamics, particularly the strain it places on Washington’s Gulf allies, especially Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is caught in a strategic squeeze, facing threats to its vital maritime routes from both the Strait of Hormuz in the east and the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the southwest, which jeopardize its oil exports and economic future.

Saudi Arabia has mitigated some risks by using an east-west oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but the ongoing conflict and Houthi-imposed naval blockade in Bab al-Mandab have created a precarious situation. The International Monetary Fund has acknowledged Saudi Arabia’s diversified infrastructure has helped it weather the crisis but warned of the economic damage caused by the war and disruptions in key shipping lanes.

While Riyadh remains wary of an Iranian victory and its regional ambitions, its interests do not fully align with the U.S. strategy of prolonged confrontation. Increasingly, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may seek partial agreements with Iran to reduce risks and stabilize the region, even if such arrangements do not fully align with Washington’s goals. Reports indicate that the United Arab Emirates has allowed the release of billions of dollars to Iran, and Oman is reportedly negotiating a deal with Tehran to secure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. objections.

These developments suggest Gulf states are hedging their bets by maintaining their security ties with the U.S. while simultaneously exploring independent channels with Iran to mitigate their vulnerabilities. This shift could undermine the U.S. strategy if Gulf allies decide they cannot afford to wait for Iran’s exhaustion and instead pursue their own regional solutions. Iran, therefore, may turn the passage of time into a strategic advantage by exploiting Gulf states’ growing fears and vulnerabilities.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a Gulf expert at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, emphasizes that the critical question is not only how long Iran can endure sanctions but how long Gulf states are willing to bear the costs of ongoing conflict. Saudi Arabia’s "hourglass" is running out faster than Iran’s, potentially reshaping the regional balance and complicating U.S. efforts to isolate Tehran.