Saudi Arabia Shifts to Assertive Military Stance Against Iran’s Proxies Amid Gulf Tensions

Since the outbreak of the Gulf conflict in late February, Saudi Arabia has been a frequent target of Iranian-led attacks, including missile strikes, drones, and hits on energy infrastructure. While the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait suffered heavier blows, Riyadh’s initial response was notably restrained, avoiding direct confrontation with Iran. It limited itself to strong condemnations, expelling low-level Iranian diplomats, and emphasizing diplomatic solutions and de-escalation. Reports even suggested Saudi Arabia may have transferred funds to Iran to maintain calm. Although there were unconfirmed reports of Saudi strikes inside Iran, Riyadh never claimed responsibility, signaling a clear intent to avoid direct war with Tehran.

However, recent weeks reveal a significant shift beneath the surface. Saudi Arabia maintains its strategic goal of avoiding direct conflict with Iran but is increasingly willing to use decisive military force against Iran’s proxies. This approach is evident in Riyadh’s initiative to form a multinational naval coalition to secure the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden against Houthi threats. Supported by countries including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, the coalition remains in its early stages but marks a move from passive defense to active military leadership against Iranian-backed groups.

This new assertiveness also extends to Saudi participation alongside the US in joint strikes against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, following drone attacks on Saudi oil and infrastructure. For years, Saudi Arabia avoided expanding the conflict into Iraq, but now it asserts its right to self-defense, sending a clear message to Iran that proxy attacks will no longer be tolerated without consequences.

Additionally, reports indicate Saudi preparations for a broader, possibly ground, operation against the Houthis in Yemen, reflecting the critical strategic importance of Bab al-Mandeb. The Houthis’ blockade and attacks on Saudi shipping and energy facilities have heightened Riyadh’s sense of vulnerability, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked from the east.

Despite this military assertiveness, Saudi Arabia continues diplomatic engagement with Iran, supporting Omani mediation and keeping communication channels open. Riyadh’s strategy distinguishes between dialogue with Tehran and deterrence or military action against its proxies, aiming to raise the cost of Iranian aggression without triggering full-scale war. This approach also signals Riyadh’s desire to lead regional security efforts and reduce reliance on the US, though American support remains crucial.

Past experience warns that defeating Iran’s proxies will be difficult. Saudi Arabia’s costly war against the Houthis has not yielded decisive victory and has exposed critical infrastructure to attacks. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and elsewhere have shown resilience and willingness to escalate. Increased Saudi military involvement risks retaliation, expanded attacks on energy and shipping, and deeper entanglement in Yemen’s conflict. While this assertiveness aligns with Israeli interests, it carries significant security, economic, and political risks for Riyadh.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a Gulf expert at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, concludes that Saudi Arabia is undergoing a doctrinal shift: it avoids direct war with Iran but is prepared to impose a heavy indirect cost through force against its proxies. This evolving stance reflects Riyadh’s attempt to assert regional leadership and deter Iranian aggression without igniting a broader regional war.