Poll Shows Religious Zionism-Identity Union Boosted, Trooper-Handel Split Hurts Support

A new poll conducted for Channel 7 by the Maagar Mochot research institute reveals significant shifts in voter sentiment following recent political alliances and splits. The "Israel Election Barometer" project found that the union between the Religious Zionism and Identity parties has garnered unprecedented support, while the division of Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel's list has alienated most of their former supporters. The Likud party also experienced a positive momentum, and the Religious Zionism party saw increased backing from voters of other right-wing parties.

The survey re-interviewed respondents from a previous poll conducted about a week and a half earlier to gauge the impact of changes in party lists on their voting intentions. The unified Religious Zionism-Identity list emerged as the week's biggest winner. Among previous Religious Zionism voters, 72% reported that the union strengthened their desire to vote for the combined list, with only 6% feeling weakened. For Identity voters, 81% felt strengthened by the union, and just 4% felt weakened. In terms of actual voter transfer, 95% of Religious Zionism voters and 86% of Identity voters moved to support the unified list.

Conversely, the situation is starkly different for supporters of the former joint list of Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel. After splitting, with Tropper joining the "Yashar" party and Hendel aligning with Yaron Ze'ev, only about 36% of the original list's supporters continued with either of the new lists, while approximately 64% defected to other parties. Sentiment also reflected this division: 47% of Tropper's supporters felt strengthened by their new alliance with "Yashar," but only 35% of Hendel and Ze'ev's new list supporters felt strengthened, with 47% reporting that the change weakened their intention to vote for them.

The Likud party also ended the week with significant positive momentum. 69% of its previous voters stated that the list changes strengthened their willingness to vote for the party, with very few reporting weakened support. Ofer Vinter's party also enjoyed positive momentum within its base, with 61% of its supporters feeling strengthened and only 13% feeling weakened.

In contrast, Yahadut HaTorah and Noam showed more moderate results. Only 28% of Yahadut HaTorah voters reported feeling strengthened, while 19% felt weakened. For Noam, the figures were closer, with 40% feeling strengthened but 34% reporting weakened support.

A notable finding was the Religious Zionism party's standing among other right-wing voters. The unified list benefited from a positive strengthening balance across most tested right-wing demographics, including voters from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, and Amichai Chikli's party. While the survey indicates a strengthening perception of Religious Zionism as a more relevant alternative, the pollsters emphasized this does not necessarily represent an actual transfer of voters. The survey included 1,109 respondents.