Poll Shows Religious Zionist-Identity Union Passes Threshold, Affecting Other Parties

A new poll released Wednesday by Walla News indicates that the union between the Religious Zionist Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and the Identity Party, headed by Moshe Feiglin, will successfully pass Israel's electoral threshold, securing five Knesset seats. This union, however, comes at the expense of Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party, which drops to 2.3% of the vote, falling below the required threshold.

In the first scenario presented by the poll, Benny Gantz's "Yash" party leads with 24 seats, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 22. Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" party garners 15 seats, while the Democrats receive 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, and United Torah Judaism 8. The Joint Arab List (Hadash-Ta'al and Balad) also secures 8 seats. Otzma Yehudit and Shas each receive 7 seats, and Ra'am gets 5.

The bloc balance in this scenario shows Netanyahu's potential coalition with 49 seats, contrasted by 58 seats for the "Zionist opposition" bloc and 13 for Arab parties. Approximately 10% of the votes, translating to about 12 seats, are wasted on parties failing to pass the electoral threshold.

A second scenario explores the impact of Tali Gottlieb leaving the Likud to join Otzma Yehudit. In this case, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit rises to 8 seats, while the Likud drops to 21 seats, and the united Religious Zionist and Identity list falls to 4 seats. Gantz still leads with 24 seats, Bennett with 15, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats with 10 each, United Torah Judaism with 8, the Joint Arab List with 8, Shas with 7, and Ra'am with 5. The bloc balance shifts slightly, with Netanyahu's coalition at 48 seats, the Zionist opposition at 59, and Arab parties at 13.

In both scenarios, a significant portion of votes are cast for parties that do not pass the electoral threshold, leading to a considerable waste of electoral power.