Senior Pollster Says New Right-Wing Parties Won't Pass Israeli Electoral Threshold

Dr. Menachem Lazar, a veteran Israeli pollster, outlined the current political landscape and voter sentiment among right-wing and religious Zionist communities. Speaking to Avishai Grinzig on the program "We Are the Majority," Lazar stated that none of the new political parties are expected to cross the electoral threshold at this time, including those polling at four to five Knesset seats. He cautioned that such parties cannot be complacent despite these numbers.

Lazar highlighted a political crisis within the national-religious public, noting that since 2022, many feel politically orphaned due to the absence of a mainstream party representing their views. He referenced recent polling data showing Winter's party at six seats, while Smotrich's party fails to pass the threshold. According to Arieh Yoeli's data, this right-wing religious segment constitutes about 14 Knesset seats in total, including roughly three seats from undecided voters who have yet to find a political home, though their political identity remains firmly right-wing.

This analysis underscores the fragmentation and challenges facing right-wing religious voters in Israel ahead of upcoming elections, with no new parties currently securing enough support to enter the Knesset. The political future of this voter bloc remains uncertain as they seek effective representation.