Political Scientist Predicts Right-Wing Party Consolidation Ahead of Israeli Elections

Professor Asher Cohen from Bar-Ilan University warns that the current proliferation of right-wing and center-right parties in Israel is unlikely to last until the upcoming elections. He highlights the impact of a significantly high electoral threshold, which could reach around 166,000 to 180,000 votes due to the voter registry surpassing seven million and an expected turnout of about five million voters. This high threshold discourages voters from supporting smaller parties that risk failing to pass the cutoff, prompting early talks of mergers and alliances among these parties.

Cohen explains that many new parties, including those formed by former Likud officials like Gilad Erdan, may be tactical moves to exert pressure or serve as alternatives within internal party contests. He predicts that most of these new lists will not make it to the ballot, with major consolidations typically occurring in the final hours before candidate registration closes. The upcoming Likud primaries on August 17 are a key date, after which political alignments may shift rapidly as candidates seek viable platforms.

Regarding the election's decisive issues, Cohen believes the focus will not be on the Palestinian state question but rather on the composition of the post-election government, specifically who will be willing to join a coalition with Netanyahu and whether a broad government will form. He also identifies the military conscription debate as a major political and emotional divide between the religious Zionist community and the ultra-Orthodox, affecting electoral strength. Cohen notes that without the conscription issue, parties like Bezalel Smotrich's would likely gain more votes despite political costs.

In conclusion, Cohen foresees significant changes in the right-wing party landscape before the elections, with larger blocs emerging as voters avoid risking their votes on smaller, less viable parties.