Netanyahu Eyeing Broad Government Post-Election, Ben Gvir Camp Fears Exclusion

An increasing assessment within the Israeli right-wing suggests Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aiming to form a broader coalition government after the upcoming elections, potentially at the expense of excluding far-right parties like Otzma Yehudit. Sources close to Itamar Ben Gvir believe Netanyahu might prioritize including figures like Gadi Eisenkot from the center-left if it allows him greater maneuverability, even if it means sidelining his current allies.

This perspective is rooted in Netanyahu's past political strategies, where he has historically incorporated centrist or left-wing parties into his governments, such as Ehud Barak's Labor in 2009 or Tzipi Livni and Yesh Atid in 2013. Ben Gvir's associates argue that Netanyahu's current government, composed entirely of right-wing and religious parties, is an anomaly and not his natural inclination. They point to instances where parties like the National Union were kept out of coalitions despite expectations.

Furthermore, the formation of a broader government could necessitate Netanyahu abandoning key agenda items of the current right-wing coalition, most notably the judicial overhaul. Including centrist parties would likely require significant compromises on judicial reform, allowing Netanyahu to project a more statesmanlike image, especially if this is perceived as one of his final terms and he is focused on his legacy.

While acknowledging that Otzma Yehudit could offer stability, Ben Gvir's camp fears Netanyahu might opt for a wider, albeit potentially less ideologically aligned, coalition. They consider it a gamble for Netanyahu if the right-wing bloc secures exactly 61 seats, as excluding Otzma Yehudit for Eisenkot might lead to a less stable government. However, if the right-wing bloc falls short of 61 seats even with Otzma Yehudit, they are convinced Netanyahu will seek to form a government with opposition parties to avoid another election.

The core question for the post-election period, according to Ben Gvir's associates, is not just the number of seats the right-wing bloc wins, but the extent of Netanyahu's options. More options, they believe, increase the likelihood of him reverting to his historical pattern of forming broader coalitions with a balancing force to the left of Likud, rather than a purely right-wing government where he himself is the most moderate element.