Netanyahu's Move Isolates Ben-Gvir, Pressures Winter Ahead of Elections

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision not to offer Ofer Winter a surplus agreement and instead approach the Religious Zionism party has created a new dilemma for both Winter and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. This move is seen as a significant blow to Ben-Gvir, potentially isolating him and forcing Winter into a difficult political decision.

For Winter, the situation presents a complex choice. A surplus agreement with Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party seems unlikely due to existing party relations and their desire to differentiate themselves from each other. An alternative, an agreement with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, could provide electoral benefits but might politically alienate him from right-wing voters by associating him with Netanyahu's opposition.

Conversely, foregoing a surplus agreement altogether could diminish Winter's chances of securing additional Knesset seats through the distribution of leftover mandates. The decision is not purely mathematical, as the chosen partner, if any, could signal Winter's political positioning.

Ben-Gvir also faces significant implications. If Religious Zionism forms an agreement with the Likud party, Otzma Yehudit will need to find another partner for a surplus agreement or run alone. Netanyahu's decision thus impacts two parties to the right of the Likud, leaving Ben-Gvir without his most natural surplus agreement partner and Winter facing a critical choice that could define his political message.