New Poll Shows Netanyahu Weakened, Blocs Tied After Candidate Lists Finalized

A new poll released Wednesday by Israel's Channel 13 shows a significant shift in the political landscape following the finalization of party lists for the upcoming elections. The "Yashr" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has emerged as the largest party with 22 Knesset seats, maintaining its previous standing. In contrast, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has dropped to 19 seats, a decrease of two seats since the announcement of reserved positions.

The poll indicates a dead heat between the two main blocs, with both the coalition bloc led by Netanyahu and the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot securing 53 seats each. Naftali Bennett's "Bamah" party is the third largest with 13 seats, an increase of one seat. Yair Golan's "HaDemokratim" party has fallen to 10 seats, while Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" has gained two seats to reach 9.

Several other parties are projected to win 8 seats: United Torah Judaism, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad). Shas remains stable with 7 seats. The "Zionut Datit" and "Identity" merger is expected to garner 6 seats, the same as Ra'am. The smallest party to cross the electoral threshold is "Amcha Israel" with 4 seats.

Notably, "Blue and White" led by Benny Gantz and "HaMeyladanim VeHaKalkala" are projected to fall short of the 3.25% electoral threshold, receiving only 1.1% and 3.2% respectively. The poll also surveyed public opinion on leadership, with Eisenkot leading Netanyahu as the preferred Prime Minister by 46% to 35%. Additionally, 38% of respondents believe Netanyahu received a warning call from the UAE before the October 7th attacks, while 24% disagree and 38% are unsure.

The survey was conducted by The Index (Shmuel Rosner, Nach Salkovik) in collaboration with Stat-Net (Yosef Mekloda), Project HaMidgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), and Ascary (Dodi Dror), with statistical consultation from Prof. David Steinberg. It included 1,119 respondents with a margin of error of 2.9%.