Hormuz Reopens on Paper, but Shipping Firms Say the Real Test Is Ahead

Late Wednesday night into Thursday, Iran and the United States announced a memorandum of understanding to end the war after more than 100 days of fighting. Under the deal, they said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately, but shipping companies and market analysts say it is still unclear how that will work in practice.

According to MarineTraffic data, about 580 ships are currently transmitting their locations inside or near the Persian Gulf, including 250 oil tankers and 330 cargo ships. Prof. Joshua Krasna, formerly a senior intelligence official and now head of the regional cooperation forum at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center, estimates the true number is above 1,000, because many vessels are likely keeping their positions hidden out of fear of attack by either the United States or Iran. Many of those ships have been stuck behind Hormuz for more than three months.

Yehuda Levin, research manager at the Israeli freight-pricing startup Freightos, said, “The answer is that nobody knows how it will work, whether there will be a coordinating body, etc. But there is definitely not enough room for everyone at once.” He added that the strait, already narrow, may be even tighter because of fears Iran mined the main channel, leaving only two usable routes, one along the Iranian coast and one off Oman.

Kpler said Hormuz is showing signs of reopening, but the risks have changed. It expects a full return to half of prewar traffic to take about a month. In normal times, 135 to 150 ships crossed the strait each day, so traffic would only reach about 70 ships daily after that period. Even though oil prices have fallen sharply below $80 a barrel, the global oil shortage is still expected to be felt for some time. Before the ceasefire, the United States had already directed about 200 ships out of Hormuz, and the return to routine passage will be complicated, with small numbers of vessels able to pass side by side until the mine threat is fully cleared. In the best case, clearing the ships now inside the strait could take around two weeks, not counting new arrivals. The Baltic Exchange Dry Index has eased from about 3,200 points, its highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to around 2,700, still well above the roughly 2,100 level seen before the war.