Strait of Hormuz Remains Geographically Open but Nearly Closed for Commercial Shipping Amid US-Iran Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz is currently open for navigation but nearly closed to commercial shipping due to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. While the US, including President Donald Trump and the commander of Central Command, asserts that the strait remains open for commercial traffic, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim it is closed "until American interference ceases." Physically, there is no complete blockade, and some vessels continue to pass, mainly through the southern route near Oman. However, commercial traffic has dropped sharply, with only 11 commercial ships passing in the 24 hours before this afternoon, representing less than 10% of pre-conflict levels.

This figure is significantly lower than the 24 and 25 ship passages recorded on July 5 and 6, when a memorandum of understanding suggested more normal operations. Even before the current escalation, exact ship counts were difficult due to vessels turning off automatic identification systems or altering transmission patterns. Thus, while the strait is geographically open, shipping companies, charterers, and insurers are treating it as effectively closed. The real closure is determined by market behavior, influenced by threats such as attacks on ships, potential detentions by Iranian naval forces, or the risk of US military strikes.

Oil prices have responded moderately so far, with Brent crude closing at $76.01 per barrel on Friday after a 5.5% weekly increase amid US-Iran clashes and the end of a ceasefire announced by President Trump. The full market reaction will become clearer as regular trading resumes. Current prices suggest expectations that the US will prevent a prolonged closure and that some oil exports will continue despite conflict.

Iran’s recent actions indicate its goal to control who passes through the strait, by which route, and under whose authority, transforming its military leverage into a permanent political and commercial mechanism. Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, described the strait as more important than "dozens of atomic bombs," underscoring its role as a central deterrent and a tool to influence global markets, Gulf states, and Washington’s calculations.