Despite Donald Trump’s declarations and the U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted. In the days after the deal was signed last weekend, only a small number of ships, described as just dozens, have crossed the strategic waterway, while roughly 500 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf.
The slowdown stems from uncertainty over the strait’s status, conflicting messages from Washington and Tehran, safety concerns, and logistical bottlenecks. Kpler and Windward said about 60 ships passed through Hormuz from Thursday through Saturday, while the U.S. military gave a higher figure, saying 55 ships crossed on Saturday alone, compared with 22 in the tracker’s count. Even so, that is far above the number moving through the strait earlier in the war, but still far below the prewar average of 130 ships a day.
Matt Smith, Kpler’s chief oil analyst, said, “You do not suddenly see a mass exodus of ships. You see an increase in traffic, but not a significant increase.” Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s head of safety and security, said shipping companies still do not know where it is safe to sail or what procedures they should follow. He added that, despite the ceasefire, the security situation for shipping remains “volatile and unstable,” and that fear of mines is keeping vessels away.
The confusion deepened after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval arm said the strait was closed because of the fighting in Lebanon and warned any ship approaching it was at risk. The U.S. Central Command then publicly denied that Iran had shut the passage, saying maritime traffic was continuing and that “the Strait of Hormuz is open.” Under the deal, Iran must reopen the strait immediately and agree not to charge ships for 60 days. Analysts quoted by the New York Times said it may take months before ship traffic and oil flows return to normal.
