Shipping Caution Grows as Hormuz Reopening Hangs in the Balance

Bloomberg reports that despite a dramatic announcement by Donald Trump and Iranian officials about a U.S.-Iran deal meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, most shipowners and major shipping companies are not yet returning to normal. They are waiting for more details before resuming traffic on the world’s most important shipping lane. According to the report, hundreds of vessels are already waiting on both sides of the strait, including nearly 300 tankers loaded with oil and gas in the Persian Gulf and a similar number of empty ships waiting to head back to export terminals.

The main concern is security, not economics. In recent months, several ceasefires and understandings collapsed quickly, and in some cases ended with Iranian fire at vessels or seizures of ships. There is also uncertainty about possible naval mines and electronic navigation disruptions reported in the strait in recent weeks. Insurance companies are also holding back until they get more clarity.

Bloomberg says that even if the agreement takes effect as planned, a return to normal will not be immediate. Beyond security fears, the shipping industry will have to handle severe congestion after months of disruption, as thousands of vessels try to re-enter a narrow waterway that is only a few kilometers wide in some places.

A separate Wall Street Journal analysis says the biggest obstacle to a real breakthrough may be Israel. The paper says the deal could hinge on whether Hormuz reopens, whether the U.S. lifts its naval blockade on Iran, and whether Israel continues military activity in Lebanon, which Tehran has made a central demand. A third analysis from the Jamestown Foundation argues that post-Khamenei Iran is increasingly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not civilian institutions or even Mojtaba Khamenei, and that future decisions on war, diplomacy, the nuclear program and Hormuz will be made mainly by a small security elite.