New U.S. intelligence reports, published in recent days and reported Tuesday by CNN, say Iran has demonstrated a real and proven ability to shut down shipping in the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses. The assessments warn that Tehran’s new power to disrupt the global economy has become a weapon “stronger than any nuclear bomb,” and that Iran is preparing an “economic nuclear option” by threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait if talks with the United States collapse.
The reports come as the U.S. administration pushes a framework agreement for a ceasefire and the reopening of shipping lanes, with an accord expected to be signed Friday in Geneva. Intelligence officials say the fighting that began in February changed Tehran’s view of the conflict and convinced it that it holds an unprecedented lever over the world economy. According to the assessments, Iran has kept much of its military capability, including missiles, drones and explosive boats, which would allow it to seal the strait again with minimal effort and maximum impact.
The intelligence picture also says Iran escalated after President Donald Trump declared that the war’s goal was to “topple the regime,” which Tehran interpreted as an existential threat. Rather than respond immediately, Iranian leaders reportedly waited several days to determine whether the U.S. was launching a limited strike or a broader campaign, and acted with calculated restraint.
Despite Trump’s declaration that the strait would reopen to traffic “without tolls,” and despite Iranian efforts to clear mines they had laid themselves, the deal remains fragile. If negotiations fail, the reports say, Iran is prepared to use the Houthis in Yemen to close Bab al-Mandab. The Houthis are currently holding back broad attacks so as not to derail the nuclear talks, but have said ships flying Israeli flags or owned by Israelis are a “legitimate target.” The reports also say Iran has rebuilt its military infrastructure faster than expected, resumed drone production, and that U.S. hopes China would pressure Tehran to keep the strait open proved unfounded. There is no intelligence consensus on Iran’s next move, and no clear plan yet for how U.S. allies would police the route after it reopens.
