A new US-Iran agreement has halted the fighting and created a framework for talks on the nuclear file and US sanctions, but the article argues that the war’s most important strategic issue remains unresolved. According to analyst Dr. Yoel Guzansky, the key outcome of the conflict is that the Strait of Hormuz has become a central arena of power for Iran, not just a theoretical threat.
For decades, Iran warned it could close the strait, through which a large share of the world’s oil and gas passes. The recent war showed that this is no longer a hypothetical risk, and that even the threat to freedom of navigation can have global economic consequences. In Guzansky’s view, that gives Tehran an enormous strategic asset, perhaps its most valuable one, even after it suffered severe military and economic damage.
The article says voices inside Iran are now talking about turning control over the strait into a permanent source of influence, and even revenue, by charging passage fees or imposing restrictions on ships after 60 days of negotiations. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar do not want another regional war, but also cannot accept an Iranian grip on their main economic lifeline. Any shift in the strait’s status could affect their revenues, investor confidence and energy-market stability.
The United States faces the same dilemma, wanting to avoid another escalation while preserving freedom of navigation. Washington cannot accept an international sea lane becoming a pressure tool for one state, but it also understands that a military attempt to solve the problem could trigger another cycle of conflict. The article concludes that even if nuclear talks improve, Hormuz will continue to shape ties between Iran, the West and the Gulf, because geography cannot be changed.
