Iran Uses Strait of Hormuz Control as Leverage Amid Renewed Tensions and Negotiations

After four days of escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States faced serious jeopardy. While the US has publicly celebrated a return to nuclear negotiations, Iran remains silent, signaling cautious strategic calculations. Experts told The New York Times that Iran’s newfound ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait, a critical global oil transit route, provides Tehran with a vital bargaining chip it is unwilling to lose, either at the negotiating table or in the event of renewed conflict.

Iran has designated specific shipping lanes in the Strait, but many vessels use an alternative southern route near Oman's coast, which Iran opposes. Oman and the International Maritime Organization recently established this new route entirely within Omani territorial waters, a move Iran views as a threat to its control over the Strait. Analysts say Iran’s attacks on ships were a swift response to this challenge, aiming to maintain its leverage.

Ali Vaz, an Iran expert, explained that regardless of whether the best or worst-case scenario unfolds, Iran needs to preserve this pressure point. Tehran’s control over the Strait is seen as its strongest tool to extract concessions from the US, especially since its nuclear program is no longer the sole deterrent. Limited strikes and threats in the Strait have already demonstrated Iran’s capacity to disrupt the global economy.

Some senior Iranian officials suspect the Trump administration’s recent memorandum of understanding was a tactic to buy time ahead of the November midterm elections, with plans to resume hostilities afterward. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that attempts to bypass Iran’s control would prolong instability and delay reopening the Strait. Experts note that Iran’s political elite, including figures close to Supreme Leader Khamenei, are willing to escalate tensions through bold actions but also open to high-level direct negotiations with the US.

The Trump administration also has no interest in renewed conflict before the elections, given the economic and military costs. Both sides are incentivized to keep the memorandum alive, and experts predict the initial 60-day negotiation period will likely be extended for many months as Washington and Tehran cautiously navigate this complex standoff.