Erdogan Ends Year Stronger Regionally, More Hostile to Israel
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is concluding the year with increased regional influence and a more adversarial stance towards Israel. Bilateral relations have continued to deteriorate throughout the year, marked by harsh statements from both sides and a near-complete official severance of economic, commercial, and aviation ties. According to Turkey's Trade Ministry, direct trade with Israel has been zero since May 2024, though unconfirmed reports suggest trade continues through third parties.
The focus of Turkish-Israeli friction has expanded beyond statements regarding Israel's actions in Gaza to encompass tangible actions in Syria. Turkey has become a key patron of the Syrian government in Damascus, providing security assistance and pushing for deeper commercial integration, setting a goal of $5 billion in trade with Syria within two years. This policy creates friction with Israel, as Ankara claims that Israeli actions impacting Syria's security also threaten Turkey.
Concurrently, Erdogan has broadened his influence in Washington and the Arab world. U.S. President Donald Trump invited him to be a founding member of the Gaza Peace Council, and Trump made a lauded official visit to Ankara in the summer. Shortly thereafter, Erdogan signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, stipulating that an attack on one signatory is an attack on all.
Domestically, Erdogan faces a more complex situation, with inflation exceeding 30% and interest rates near 40%. Despite these economic challenges, Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a significant player in the Middle East, increasingly impacting the regional landscape relevant to Israel.
