Turkey Shifts From Regional Partner to Strategic Adversary Under Erdogan's Leadership

Turkey has transformed from a once-friendly nation to a strategic adversary of Israel, increasingly leading the regional resistance axis under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This shift follows a deliberate policy to strengthen Sunni Islamic identity while weakening the secular legacy of Atatürk, alongside a marked deterioration in relations with Jerusalem. Despite provocative rhetoric and open support for terrorism, Israel long treated Turkey as a complex actor due to its NATO membership and mutual economic interests. However, recent developments, especially since the outbreak of the "Iron Swords" war, reveal Turkey actively supporting Hamas and facilitating dozens of thwarted terror attacks originating from its territory, according to Israeli security agencies Shin Bet and the IDF.

The regional power dynamics have changed significantly since October 2023. Iran's capabilities have been weakened by Israeli-American operations, Hezbollah's influence has diminished, and Syria no longer poses an immediate existential threat. Qatar has also retreated to preserve its legitimacy with the U.S. In this power vacuum, Turkey has aggressively expanded its military capabilities, investing heavily in modernizing its army, developing advanced defense industries, and increasing its ballistic missile arsenal. Turkey now exports drones and weapons systems globally and extends its military presence from Libya to the Caucasus. Its attempts to acquire F-35 fighter jets and advanced weaponry aim to challenge Israel's regional military superiority.

Hamas serves as a strategic asset for Erdogan, granting him legitimacy among the Muslim street and positioning Turkey as a leader in the Palestinian cause. Israeli analysts warn that Erdogan's Islamist agenda is not mere rhetoric but a concrete operational plan for the coming decade. Turkey currently conducts low-intensity conflict through terrorism, psychological warfare, and proxies, avoiding direct confrontation while preparing for a broader regional role. The combination of Turkey's military buildup, sanctuary for terrorist groups, and leadership of the anti-Israel camp constitutes a worrying strategic mosaic. Although not yet Israel's primary threat, Turkey's evolving posture could become one of the most complex security challenges facing Israel in the next ten years.