Turkey Challenges Israel Amid Rising Regional Tensions and New Security Alliances

Researcher Noa Lazimi from the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center analyzed the historic low in relations between Jerusalem and Ankara, highlighting the recent Israeli strikes in Syria that have escalated tensions with Turkey. These strikes, combined with Turkey's new security alliances, are prompting Israel to reconsider its approach toward Ankara. Lazimi noted that despite attempts to improve ties in September 2023, including a Netanyahu-Erdogan meeting discussing energy cooperation, the October 7 Hamas attack disrupted any progress, leading Turkey to adopt a more openly pro-Hamas stance for political gain.

Lazimi explained that Turkey’s increased involvement in Syria, facilitated by the withdrawal of U.S. forces, has allowed Ankara to deepen its military presence and support for groups like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey aims to limit Israel’s regional moves primarily through diplomatic and indirect means rather than direct confrontation. Ankara is also working to undermine Israel’s international image and legitimacy in using force in these conflict zones.

Turkey is expanding its influence by promoting negotiations between Syria and Hezbollah, supporting the Lebanese army, and solidifying its military foothold in Syria. It leverages its improving relations with Washington and NATO membership to challenge Israel’s regional standing. Lazimi pointed out that Turkey is also attempting to build a Sunni counterbalance to the weakening Shiite axis, aligning with Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Egypt, while advancing new regional security frameworks such as the "Mecca Agreement" with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Economically, Turkey seeks to capitalize on disruptions in traditional trade routes by developing new transportation and energy corridors through its territory, competing with Israeli-backed regional projects. Syria is envisioned by Turkey as a key transit hub connecting the Middle East to Europe, with Saudi Arabia playing a significant role in these initiatives.

Lazimi warned that Israel should not underestimate Turkey’s military capabilities, including its naval power, air force modernization, and missile development, which could eventually threaten Israeli territory. However, she believes Turkey currently avoids direct conflict with Israel due to NATO ties and relations with the U.S. Israel, she argued, should set clear boundaries regarding Turkey’s military presence in Syria to prevent future threats near its northern border and maintain freedom of action in the region. While labeling Turkey an enemy may not serve Israel’s interests, Israel must be prepared to act decisively if its red lines are crossed, as demonstrated in recent strikes on Syrian airbases.