Turkey's Rising Influence in Syria Sparks New Security Threats for Israel

Turkey's growing military and political presence in Syria, coupled with Israeli airstrikes attributed to Israel, is heightening fears of a direct confrontation between the two countries. Experts warn that Israel must maintain its deterrence while avoiding escalation with Ankara. Ben Shabat highlights Turkey's strategic moves to assert itself as a leading regional power amid shifting Middle Eastern dynamics, including the recent joint defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, which forms a Sunni alliance independent of Washington. Alongside military actions, Turkey is also pursuing legal and public campaigns against Israel to portray it as violating international law.

Despite tensions, Ben Shabat distinguishes Turkey from Iran, noting Ankara continues to allow Azeri oil shipments to Israel, keeps its airspace open to Israeli flights, and maintains diplomatic ties. The challenge for Israel is to prevent rivalry from escalating into military conflict, as Turkey's advanced military capabilities and NATO membership make any direct clash a significant strategic escalation. Sitrinovich stresses the importance of establishing direct communication channels with Ankara to manage tensions in Syria and cautions against portraying local Syrian figure Ahmad al-Shara as merely a Turkish proxy, as their interests sometimes diverge.

Sitrinovich warns that Israeli military actions risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, provoking Turkey to deepen its military involvement in Syria. He advocates combining military deterrence with diplomacy to avoid unnecessary escalation. He also rejects the notion of a Sunni axis solely aimed against Israel, noting that both Israel and Turkey share concerns about a resurgent Iranian regime.

Political analyst Alush suggests Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is signaling that he feels unrestricted in Syria, preparing the ground for escalation through political rhetoric, intelligence leaks, and intensified criticism of Turkey's role. Alush links this to the accelerating rapprochement between Turkey and Syria under U.S. President Donald Trump, which Netanyahu aims to disrupt before it solidifies. He also connects Netanyahu's posture to electoral pressures, suggesting the prime minister is seeking another conflict.

All experts agree that Syria is rapidly becoming the central arena for Israeli-Turkish rivalry, with little room for error. Israel faces the complex task of balancing deterrence and diplomacy to manage Turkey's expanding influence without triggering open conflict.