Israel Reassesses Strategic Stance on Erdogan Amid Growing Turkish Influence in Syria
This week, Israel conducted an unusual airstrike in northern Syria and notably took responsibility for the attack, highlighting a complex dilemma regarding Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The incident and Israel's public acknowledgment reflect deep concerns about Turkey's expanding regional ambitions and the evolving nature of its relationship with Israel.
Unlike Iran, Turkey is a NATO member with strong ties to the West and a significant regional power with a centralized government under Erdogan. However, the Israeli assessment is shifting away from the assumption that Erdogan is a rational leader with whom strategic coexistence and clear red lines can be maintained. Instead, Israel questions whether it can afford to allow a leader who has demonstrated consistent hostility toward it to deepen his strategic foothold in Syria.
The hostility is notable given the absence of territorial disputes between Israel and Turkey and their previously cooperative relations. Since Erdogan's rise, Ankara has intensified its opposition to Israel, cutting trade ties, supporting international legal actions against Israel, and employing harsh rhetoric. This sustained antagonism raises concerns about whether the conflict is merely political or part of Erdogan's broader regional vision.
The October 7 attacks by Hamas marked a turning point for Israel's threat perception, challenging previous assumptions that threats could be contained through deterrence and intelligence. While Turkey is not equated with Hamas or Iran, Israel recognizes the danger of allowing Turkey to establish a lasting military and political presence in Syria, which could become a strategic threat over time.
Israel emphasizes the need to address Turkey's growing influence before it becomes irreversible, drawing parallels to Iran's gradual buildup of regional proxies. Although dialogue and negotiation with Erdogan remain possible, Israel stresses the crucial distinction between engagement and trust. The security doctrine must ensure that even if Erdogan's policies shift, Turkey will lack the means to pose a strategic threat to Israel. This cautious approach is seen as a vital lesson from recent events, underscoring the importance of preemptive action against emerging long-term threats.
