Erdogan May Escalate Tensions With Israel Ahead of Turkish Presidential Elections

Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified following Israel's attack on the Syrian Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib. Ankara's aggressive political response signals that Israel has struck at Turkish interests, particularly regarding Turkey's military presence and support for forces in Syria. Turkish deployments, including weapons shipments to Abu Muhammad al-Julani's regime and military equipment like Aselsan radar systems at Damascus airport, underscore Turkey's strategic foothold in Syria.

Despite current mutual interest in de-escalation amid Israel's pressing security threats from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, a significant military escalation between Israel and Turkey could emerge after 2027. This timeline aligns with Turkey's political calendar, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, currently in his second term, may call early elections to reset his term limits and seek re-election beyond 2028.

Erdogan's domestic political challenges are acute. His Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered historic losses in the 2024 local elections, notably losing two key provinces to the relatively minor Welfare Party (YRP), led by Fatih Erbakan, son of a former prime minister influential to Erdogan. This defeat, coupled with Erdogan's crackdown on opposition figures like Istanbul's ousted mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, reflects his efforts to consolidate power ahead of the presidential vote.

The economic crisis in Turkey exacerbates Erdogan's political vulnerability. The Turkish lira has plummeted from 3.7 to 48 per US dollar over the last decade, inflation remains high despite a 37% central bank interest rate, and energy price shocks from regional conflicts have worsened conditions. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions, including influence in Somalia, Libya, and Syria through proxies, serve both nationalist narratives and political distraction.

U.S. Ambassador Tom Bark's statements perceived as pro-Turkish and anti-Israel further complicate Israel-Turkey relations. Erdogan leverages anti-Israel sentiment as a potent political tool domestically. As the Turkish presidential election approaches, Ankara is expected to intensify hostile rhetoric against Israel, opposing Israeli containment of Turkey's expansionist aims in Syria. Given Turkey's worsening economic and political crises, a direct military confrontation with Israel could become a matter of when, not if.