Israel's Next Defense Minister: A Look at Key Candidates and Their Security Doctrines

As Israel navigates the complex political landscape following recent events, the selection of the next Minister of Defense is emerging as a critical decision, potentially as impactful as choosing the next Prime Minister. The role transcends operational planning and budget management, demanding a leader capable of rebuilding the military, addressing the Iranian threat, shaping the future of Gaza, managing the West Bank, and navigating relations with the United States. A significant internal challenge will be the highly contentious issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the military.

The identity of the next defense minister is contingent on the formation of the next government. Several prominent figures are being considered, each representing distinct security philosophies. Among them are retired Brigadier General Ofir Winter, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan. Their differing approaches revolve around how Israel should operate after the security failures of October 7th, debating whether to pursue decisive victory, fundamentally alter regional equations, or balance military strength with political separation and international alliances.

Ofir Winter, if a right-wing government is formed, is seen as a potential candidate. He advocates for a proactive, offensive military focused on decisive victory rather than temporary deterrence, criticizing Israel's long-standing "containment" and "deterrence" policies. Winter supports strengthening settlements in the West Bank, asserting Israeli sovereignty, and systematically dismantling terrorist infrastructure. He views the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men as essential for rebuilding the army and proposes tailored frameworks to encourage their service, alongside increased benefits for combat soldiers and reservists.

Naftali Bennett, in a different political scenario, would likely focus on security policy directly, even if not holding the defense portfolio formally. He champions a "gorilla in the jungle" approach, advocating for an unpredictable regional power that initiates actions rather than passively defending. Bennett aims to directly confront Iran, not just its proxies, and has labeled Qatar an "enemy state," seeking to exclude it and Turkey from Gaza's future. He proposes a stronger alliance with Egypt and a covert relationship with President el-Sisi to manage Gaza's future and prevent arms smuggling. Bennett also seeks to create an independent intelligence assessment capability for the Prime Minister to challenge the military establishment.

Gadi Eisenkot, a likely candidate in a centrist or opposition government, brings extensive experience from his time as IDF Chief of Staff and a member of the war cabinet. He balances a willingness to use significant force with caution regarding post-operation strategy, previously associated with the "Dahiya Doctrine" of overwhelming force against Hezbollah. Eisenkot, however, warns against a process leading to a bi-national state in the West Bank, advocating for continued Israeli security control while the Palestinian Authority manages civilian life. He opposes unilateral annexation, fearing damage to relations with the US, Abraham Accords partners, and international legitimacy. He views ties with Washington and the region as integral to Israel's security.

Yair Golan, former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff, has expressed interest in the defense portfolio. He calls for a moderate Palestinian entity as an alternative to Hamas and the deployment of a new international force in southern Lebanon. In the West Bank, Golan proposes a separation from Palestinians, involving a strong fight against both Palestinian and Jewish terrorism, evacuation of illegal outposts, and border demarcation. He aims to build a moderate regional axis with Egypt, Jordan, and Abraham Accords nations, focusing on strengthening the ground forces and ensuring military actions serve clear political objectives. Eisenkot has publicly stated that there are better candidates for the role than Golan.

Regardless of who is appointed, the next defense minister will face the critical challenge of military manpower, particularly the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox. This issue has transitioned from a socio-political debate to a core security concern due to the prolonged war and the need to expand the army. While Winter, Bennett, Eisenkot, and Golan all acknowledge the necessity of increased ultra-Orthodox participation, their specific approaches vary, with Winter proposing tailored service, Bennett linking service to economic benefits, and Eisenkot emphasizing the army's needs in any new conscription law.