Ofer Winter Seen as Key to Expanding Netanyahu's Right-Wing Support Base

In recent weeks, concerns have circulated that Ofer Winter could harm the right-wing bloc by splitting votes with Bezalel Smotrich, potentially causing vote wastage and even threatening Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. However, some analysts argue the opposite: Winter may be the only candidate capable of attracting new right-wing voters to Netanyahu's camp. This is largely because Winter presents a fresh alternative, with a list of candidates like Yosef Haddad, Eran Ben Ari, and Natali Shem Tov, who lack traditional political baggage and appeal to voters tired of established politicians, especially those associated with the recent tragic events.

Winter positions himself as right-wing but notably avoids aligning closely with Netanyahu, distinguishing himself from "Bibi loyalists." This approach targets voters who are right-wing on security issues but disillusioned with Netanyahu, including those currently supporting Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, or other opposition parties primarily due to their opposition to Netanyahu rather than a shift to the left. Winter's campaign emphasizes strong security policies, particularly regarding Gaza, with a directness many parties avoid.

The critical question is not how many votes Winter might take from Smotrich but how many he can draw from Lieberman, Bennett, and others, thereby expanding the right-wing bloc rather than fragmenting it. Early polls suggest Winter is surpassing the electoral threshold, and his colorful launch has introduced a sense of novelty missing in Israeli politics for some time. Ironically, Netanyahu might have less to fear from Winter than Smotrich, who competes for the same voter segment within the bloc.

Some argue Winter should unite with Smotrich to avoid splitting votes, but given Winter's rising poll numbers and distinct appeal, the reverse might be true: Smotrich could be the one endangering the right-wing bloc and might need to consider an alliance with Winter. Ultimately, Winter's ability to attract new right-wing voters disenchanted with Netanyahu could strengthen Netanyahu's position rather than weaken it.