Netanyahu Faces Dilemma Over Fourth Right-Wing Party Ahead of Elections

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently undecided on whether to support the creation of a fourth right-wing party or to integrate new right-wing players into existing parties ahead of the upcoming elections. The key concern is the risk of vote splitting, which could lead to losing seats in the Knesset due to Israel's surplus vote agreements system. This dilemma arises from fears that a new party might siphon votes from established right-wing factions, potentially causing some parties to fail to pass the electoral threshold, as happened with Meretz on the left and Naftali Bennett's party in 2019.

Netanyahu would prefer to consolidate right-wing forces, including figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and smaller parties such as Noam, as well as new entrants like Moshe Feiglin, Michael Ben-Ari, Yaron Zelekha, and the soon-to-be-announced party by Ofer Winter. However, with only three parties able to form surplus vote agreements, adding a fourth party complicates the distribution of surplus votes and risks losing a mandate.

In previous elections, surplus vote agreements were made between parties with ideological similarities, such as Shas and United Torah Judaism or Likud and the Religious Zionist Party. If the right-wing bloc fields four parties, one will be left without a surplus vote agreement, potentially wasting votes that could have translated into an additional seat. Moreover, surplus vote agreements with parties outside the right-wing bloc could inadvertently benefit opposition parties.

The surplus vote agreement system, established in the 1970s under the Bader-Ofer law, determines which party gains extra seats from combined surplus votes. Since it is impossible to predict which party will benefit, parties usually sign agreements with ideologically close allies to keep extra seats within the same political camp. Netanyahu's decision on whether to back a fourth right-wing party will significantly impact the bloc's electoral strategy and seat allocation in the 2026 elections.