Low Voter Turnout Marks Intense Leadership Battle in Likud Primaries

As of 4 PM on Monday, only about 24% of Likud party members, roughly 34,000 voters, had participated in the party's primary elections to determine its candidate list. Nearly 40 incumbent Knesset members are competing for approximately 15 realistic spots on the list, intensifying the contest. The most closely watched race is for the top position, with Speaker of the Knesset Amir Ohana considered the frontrunner, though strong contenders include MK Tali Gottlieb and ministers Yariv Levin and Eli Cohen.

The low turnout raises the likelihood that candidates benefiting from political deals could advance higher on the list, as "free votes", those not bound by such agreements, constitute an estimated 50% to 60% of the electorate. The large number of candidates relative to the limited available seats complicates predicting the final results. Some MKs like Idit Silman, Avi Dichter, and Dudi Amsalem may be pushed to lower list positions between 15 and 35.

Following a report by Channel 13 about a revenge campaign by the Gur Hasidic sect against Netanyahu, several MKs backed by the sect include David Bitan, Dudi Amsalem, Miri Regev, May Golan, Miki Zohar, and Ofir Katz. This internal battle is unprecedented in Likud due to unfavorable polls and numerous reserved spots secured by Prime Minister and party leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu's "exclusion list" includes Tali Gottlieb, David Bitan, and Nir Barkat, whom he reportedly wants to keep from high list placements.