Yoav Segalovitz’s Potential Alliance with Mansour Abbas Fails to Shift Israeli Election Polls

As Israel heads toward new elections, the latest Globes poll survey shows the Likud party leading with 25 seats, followed closely by the Yisrael Beytenu party led by Benny Gantz’s former IDF Chief, Gadi Eizenkot, which gained one seat to reach 23. Other parties maintain their previous standings: the Democratic Camp holds 10 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, and the religious parties United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit each have 8. Hadash-Ta’al rose to 6 seats, while Ra’am and Religious Zionism each hold 5. The new "Beit Tziony" party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Hili Tropper, fluctuates around the electoral threshold, passing it in half the polls with 4 seats but failing in the others. Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, remains below the threshold in all surveys.

The opposition bloc excluding Arab parties weakened by one seat to 56 on average, while Arab parties increased by one seat to 11. The coalition bloc remains steady at 54 seats. Notably, only the Maariv poll, which grants Naftali Bennett’s party a high seat count, shows the opposition without Arab parties at 61 seats; most other polls place the opposition bloc, including Arab parties, at 62 to 68 seats. Channel 14’s poll is an outlier, giving the coalition a majority of 62 seats.

Regarding the potential political impact of Yoav Segalovitz joining forces with Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party, the polls show no immediate change, with Ra’am consistently at 5 seats. Most polls were conducted before Segalovitz’s announcement to leave Yesh Atid and before any formal alliance with Ra’am was agreed. Public opinion appears skeptical about this alliance: only 28% of respondents in Channel 12’s "Ulpan Shishi" poll support relying on Segalovitz as the decisive "61st vote" to form a government, and just 20% in the Maariv poll back including Ra’am in a future coalition, even if Segalovitz is placed second on the list.

However, among opposition voters, support for Segalovitz as the key to government formation is higher, with 45% in favor and 27% opposed according to the Channel 12 poll. This suggests that while the general public remains cautious, the opposition base is more receptive to this potential political maneuver. Meanwhile, Globes also revealed that Prime Minister Netanyahu is demanding a transfer of 400 billion shekels to defense during the election period, signaling a costly campaign ahead. The media outlet emphasizes its commitment to respectful and ethical discourse in its coverage.