Israelis See Violent Internal Conflict and Iranian Nuclear Threat as Top Security Risks

A recent survey presented at the Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth National Security Conference, conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reveals that Israeli public opinion identifies violent internal societal conflict and Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as the two most significant threats facing Israel by 2026. The study analyzed seven major threat scenarios to Israel and three related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, based on representative surveys from February and July 2023.

In the July survey, 39% of respondents ranked violent internal clashes and Iran's nuclear armament as top threats, with a large-scale missile attack on Israeli territory following at 35%. Democratic erosion and prolonged conflict in a single arena were also noted concerns. The perceived likelihood of these threats increased over the months, especially for missile attacks (61%) and prolonged warfare (59%). Notably, the perceived probability of losing U.S. support doubled from 13% in February to 26% in July.

Respondents viewed violent internal conflict as having the highest potential damage (69%), followed by democratic erosion (68%), Iran's nuclear threat, and loss of U.S. support (both 67%). The report highlights the interplay between internal vulnerabilities, such as democratic weakening and societal division, and external challenges, emphasizing that Israel's national resilience underpins its military and technological superiority.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant concern, with 55% seeing it as a major threat. Among political solutions, 35% viewed a binational state granting Palestinians full citizenship as the most threatening scenario, while 24% each identified a two-state solution or full annexation without citizenship as threats. The report suggests that the lack of a political horizon weakens Israel's international standing and complicates coalition-building against Iran.

Additional vulnerabilities include economic disparities in defense spending, with expensive missile interceptors versus cheaper drones, and gaps in civilian protection, as nearly 2.6 million Israelis lack proper bomb shelters, especially in peripheral and conflict-border areas. The report also warns of risks to Israel's technological edge due to brain drain, with about 12% of doctoral students abroad. Overall, the findings indicate that Israelis no longer separate internal threats from traditional military dangers, viewing societal conflict, democratic erosion, and loss of U.S. support as equally or more damaging than external military threats.