US-Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal Collapses After Trump Links It to Israel Normalization

On Wednesday afternoon, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a historic civil nuclear agreement after more than two decades of planning. The deal, signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and his Saudi counterpart, granted Riyadh significant concessions, including the option to enrich uranium on Saudi soil under certain conditions. However, the diplomatic breakthrough unraveled within hours. The next morning, President Donald Trump announced on social media that the entire deal was contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel. Trump also contradicted the reported terms by denying that uranium enrichment would be permitted under the agreement.

Trump's statement revealed deep divisions within the US administration. According to CNN sources, the White House was angered by the Energy Department's unilateral announcement, claiming it ignored explicit instructions to delay the announcement until official letters were sent to Congress. The Energy Department denied these accusations, calling them "fake news" and insisting the process was coordinated with the White House and State Department. Nonetheless, White House officials emphasized that Trump is the ultimate dealmaker.

The original agreement envisioned American companies assisting in building nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia over 30 years. Unlike the previous Biden administration proposal, the deal did not require normalization with Israel or impose strict international oversight. Trump's sudden reversal was influenced by immediate conservative media criticism, including from the Wall Street Journal and Fox News, which argued that granting Saudi Arabia nuclear concessions without normalization was a dangerous reward.

The timing of Trump's social media post, minutes after a Fox News panel questioned the absence of normalization in the deal, highlights his sensitivity to media pressure and willingness to shift policy rapidly. The reversal shocked Saudi officials, turning what they saw as a diplomatic victory into a crisis. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously stated he cannot accept diplomatic ties with Israel without a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state.

In Israel, the original deal announcement was met with concern, seen as weakening Israel's leverage over Saudi Arabia. However, Trump's new condition linking the nuclear deal to normalization dramatically changes the situation. While some speculated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intervened behind the scenes, the White House denied any conversation between Trump and Netanyahu, framing the condition as consistent with Trump's long-term Middle East peace goals. Nuclear nonproliferation experts warn the deal, if approved, sets a dangerous precedent by potentially enabling Saudi Arabia to develop military nuclear capabilities, especially given the Crown Prince's statements about responding to an Iranian nuclear weapon. It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia will accept the diplomatic price Trump demands or if the historic deal will remain unrealized.