Former Israeli Intelligence Officer Highlights Historic Shift in Lebanon's Power Balance

Colonel (res.) Or Horovitz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and former head of Hezbollah intelligence in Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN), discussed the evolving security situation in southern Lebanon in a Thursday interview with 103FM. He addressed the start of an Israeli-Lebanese-American pilot program aimed at clearing villages in southern Lebanon following Israel's withdrawal.

Horovitz emphasized a significant weakening of Hezbollah, describing it as "weaker than ever" and characterizing the current Lebanese president as courageous and politically motivated to end longstanding hostilities and avoid civil war. He noted that Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed organization, has dramatically lost its former capabilities and now operates primarily according to Iranian interests.

The former intelligence officer highlighted the expanding role of the Lebanese army, which previously had minimal presence against Hezbollah. With deep American involvement, the Lebanese military is gradually increasing its motivation and capabilities to challenge Hezbollah's influence. Horovitz views the pilot program as a critical test for the Lebanese army and a potential turning point for Lebanon's internal dynamics.

Regarding Iran's role, Horovitz explained that Tehran is deterred by Israel's strength and fears Hezbollah's collapse if conflict resumes. He posed a key question about whether Hezbollah would engage if Iran involves Israel in a conflict, warning that a third war serving non-Lebanese interests could trap Hezbollah in an inescapable crisis.

Horovitz cautioned that a full confrontation between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah could trigger a civil war, a scenario he believes Lebanese leadership currently seeks to avoid. He concluded that gradual empowerment of the Lebanese army, supported by the U.S., could lead to meaningful change amid Hezbollah's historic decline.