Former IDF Officer Warns Lebanon Withdrawal Fueled Hezbollah's Rise Ahead of Second Lebanon War
As Israel marks twenty years since the Second Lebanon War, retired Colonel Eliezer Shenwald, former Operations Officer of the Northern Command, reflects on the leadership hesitations and the 2000 unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon that enabled Hezbollah's unprecedented strengthening. Shenwald argues that the rushed retreat under fire damaged Israeli deterrence, emboldening Hezbollah and Iran, who viewed the withdrawal as a victory and leveraged it to expand their military capabilities.
He recalls that the withdrawal was justified as a means to reduce friction and casualties, but fundamentally stemmed from Israeli leadership weakness and fear of losses. This approach prioritized avoiding confrontation over decisively defeating the enemy, despite the growing threat. Shenwald draws parallels to biblical warnings from Moses about the dangers of fear and indecision in warfare.
In the six years following the withdrawal, political and media narratives framed the move as successful due to relative calm, but intelligence revealed Hezbollah's rapid empowerment. This buildup set the stage for the 2006 war, triggered by Hezbollah's kidnapping of three Israeli soldiers on July 12, 2006. The conflict lasted 34 days, ending with a ceasefire on August 14, 2006, and Israeli forces remained in Lebanon until Yom Kippur.
Shenwald describes internal military disagreements during the war, particularly between the Northern Command and General Staff, over reliance on airpower versus ground maneuvers. These disputes led to confusion and multiple conflicting operational plans. The Winograd Commission later criticized the war as a major missed opportunity given Israel's military superiority.
He highlights Hezbollah's dramatic growth since 2006, from an estimated 700 regular fighters and 8,000 total combatants with 12,000-15,000 mostly short-range rockets, to a force of 50,000-100,000 fighters, including elite units, and over 150,000 rockets and advanced weaponry capable of striking all of Israel. The turning point came with Israel's "Northern Arrows" operation two years ago, which restored deterrence by inflicting significant damage on Hezbollah and regaining control up to the Blue Line.
Shenwald concludes that only through decisive leadership and readiness to confront threats can Israel alter the strategic reality and prevent future escalations. He currently heads the Meir Harel Hesder Yeshiva in Modi'in.
