Israel has moved from having broad military freedom in Lebanon to operating under a growing set of constraints shaped by U.S.-Iran talks, even though it also reached a separate deal with Lebanon. The article says that until President Donald Trump unilaterally ended strikes against Iran, Israel could attack in Lebanon largely as it wished. Once the U.S.-Tehran ceasefire took effect, Iran tried to extend it to Lebanon, and under American pressure Israel accepted only a partial reduction in offensive activity.
A later U.S.-backed agreement between Israel and Lebanon required Hezbollah to pull all its forces north of the Litani River, and said any presence south of the river was a violation. Israeli preemptive strikes against Hezbollah operatives continued, but were concentrated mainly north of the Litani, to remove threats or respond to Hezbollah actions. A separate understanding with the Americans also had Israel avoid strikes in Beirut’s Dahiya district, while Hezbollah would refrain from firing at northern Israeli communities. Israel gave up an important pressure tool, but Hezbollah did stop shooting at the north.
When Hezbollah tried to break that arrangement during the emerging U.S.-Iran deal, Israel did strike in Dahiya and the group halted fire toward the north. But the latest U.S.-Iran understanding also forced Israel to stop initiating attacks on Hezbollah fighters in the area between the Litani and the yellow line, the main combat zone. The writer argues this is especially troubling because Israel is now effectively applying an agreement it is not part of, rather than the Israel-Lebanon deal signed under U.S. auspices.
The piece says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should have drawn a clear red line with Trump and insisted that earlier understandings not be reopened under Iranian pressure. Instead, Israel’s restraint, the article argues, encouraged Iran. On Monday morning, it was reported that a new conflict-deconfliction mechanism had been created in Lebanon, including Iran, the U.S., Qatar, Pakistan and Lebanon, but not Israel, though Israel will later be expected to follow its decisions. The article says a limited IDF pullback may happen in coming days for a pilot in which the Lebanese Army would enter a small area south of the Litani cleared of Hezbollah. The writer concludes that while the yellow line has become Israel’s red line and the immediate blocking effort has worked, the concessions endanger Israeli troops, amount to de facto acceptance of Hezbollah south of the Litani, and give Iran a near-official role in Lebanon.
