Hezbollah has been badly weakened since Israel’s October 2024 Operation Northern Arrows and later Operation With the Lion, which exposed vulnerabilities in its Iranian backer. The article says the group has lost most of its long-range and heavy missile capabilities, about 8,000 fighters and commanders have been killed since October 8, 2023, and internal opposition to Hezbollah is growing, including among Shiites. It also says the Lebanese government wants an arrangement with Israel that would strip Hezbollah of the legitimacy to wage a “resistance” war.
Israeli forces now say the main threat to Galilee communities from direct fire and ground incursions has largely been removed after the IDF moved to the outskirts of Nabatieh and to the Beaufort and Ali Tahar ridges, enabling the destruction of kilometers of Hezbollah attack tunnels. But Hezbollah still has enough rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones, and attack UAVs to keep northern residents from returning to routine and to wage guerrilla warfare between the border and the “yellow line.” The article argues that Hezbollah cannot be fully defeated unless it is disarmed, something the IDF cannot do without occupying most of Lebanon.
According to the article, the political and military leadership approved five operating principles. The IDF will continue defending the Galilee from the yellow line, which has been shifted further north and west and now runs through southern Nabatieh to the sea. The area between the border and the line is now called a “security zone,” and the army will keep operating there against aboveground and underground infrastructure. Israel rejected a withdrawal demand raised in talks with Washington, and officials say there is no intention to pull back now.
The IDF will also keep striking any source of fire that threatens the north, including people, launch sites, or buildings, though the article says Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to authorize a strike in Beirut soon after recent pressure from Donald Trump. In addition, Hezbollah operatives still south of the Litani must move north of the new yellow line, and residents of southern Lebanon whose villages lie inside the security zone will not be allowed home, at least until a deal with Lebanon is reached.
The article says the IDF is preparing to transfer a few limited areas to Lebanese Army control as a test, while continuing a new defense concept that places Israeli troops physically between terror groups and border communities. It notes that explosive drone threats, especially fiber-optic guided ones, still lack a sufficient answer, even though casualties have recently fallen. The piece concludes that Israel has improved its security position versus October 7, but still lacks a diplomatic path to a stable end, and says the only durable solution would be serious negotiations with Beirut backed by Saudi and American support.
